The South Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is filled with powerhouse programs, potential Cinderella teams, and thrilling matchups. Auburn enters as the No. 1 seed, but the region is loaded with strong teams that could challenge for a Final Four spot. Let’s take a deep dive into the first-round matchups, highlighting key factors and predictions.
(1) Auburn vs. (16) Alabama State/Saint Francis (PA)
Auburn has been dominant all season and earned the No. 1 overall seed in the South Region. Led by a combination of elite guard play, stifling defense, and an efficient offense, the Tigers have been nearly unbeatable.
Their opponent will be determined by a First Four matchup between Alabama State and Saint Francis (PA). While both teams have had impressive seasons in their respective conferences, neither is expected to put up much resistance against an Auburn team that is bigger, faster, and more skilled at every position.
Expect Auburn to jump out to an early lead and coast to an easy victory.
Prediction: Auburn wins convincingly.
(8) Louisville (-2.5) vs. (9) Creighton
One of the most competitive matchups in the first round, Louisville and Creighton bring contrasting styles that make this game a true toss-up. Louisville thrives on a physical, grind-it-out approach, using strong defense and rebounding to control games, while Creighton relies on three-point shooting and offensive spacing to break down opponents.
Creighton’s ability to stretch the floor and knock down threes will be key. If they can get hot from deep, they could put Louisville’s defense-oriented style under pressure. However, Louisville’s athleticism and rebounding edge should allow them to control the glass and create second-chance opportunities on offense.
This game is likely to go down to the wire, with momentum swings and clutch plays on both sides. In the final moments, Louisville’s toughness, rebounding, and ability to score inside should help them grind out a close victory.
Prediction: Louisville edges out Creighton in a close game.
(5) Michigan (-3.5) vs. (12) UC San Diego
Michigan enters the tournament as a dangerous No. 5 seed, relying on size, rebounding, and efficient offense to control games. Their frontcourt will be a problem for UC San Diego, who lacks the physical presence to battle with Michigan in the paint.
However, UC San Diego is a scrappy team that can spread the floor and shoot well from deep. If they can neutralize Michigan’s big men and hit shots early, this game could get interesting.
That being said, Michigan’s size and ability to dominate the paint should be too much for UC San Diego to handle. Look for Michigan to control the boards and wear down their opponent.
Prediction: Michigan moves on.
(4) Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. (13) Yale
Texas A&M entered the tournament battle-tested from the SEC, having faced some of the toughest competition in the country. The Aggies relied on a balanced attack, featuring physical defense, elite rebounding, and a strong inside-out offense to control games throughout the season.
Yale, however, proved once again that Ivy League teams should never be overlooked in March Madness. The Bulldogs came in prepared, showcasing their ability to take care of the ball, knock down perimeter shots, and play fundamentally sound basketball.
While Texas A&M’s size and athleticism gave them an early advantage, Yale’s efficient offense and sharpshooting from beyond the arc kept them in the game. The Bulldogs executed a disciplined game plan, limiting turnovers and frustrating the Aggies’ key players. Down the stretch, clutch shooting and stellar defense allowed Yale to pull ahead, completing a thrilling upset.
Prediction: Yale pulls off the upset.
(6) Ole Miss vs. (11) San Diego State/North Carolina
Ole Miss has had an up-and-down season, but when they play well, they can compete with anyone. Their defense is their calling card, and they rely on forcing turnovers and controlling the pace.
The winner of the San Diego State vs. North Carolina play-in game will be a tough opponent. San Diego State brings an aggressive defense and a slow-paced style, while North Carolina is built on high-level scoring and rebounding.
Regardless of who they face, Ole Miss’s ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities will be key. If they can force mistakes and capitalize on them, they should advance.
Prediction: Ole Miss survives a close game.
(3) Iowa State (-13.5) vs. (14) Lipscomb
Iowa State is one of the most complete teams in the tournament, with elite defense, strong rebounding, and a reliable offense. Their ability to force turnovers and create transition opportunities makes them a dangerous team in March.
Lipscomb, while a strong mid-major program, lacks the size and athleticism to truly compete with Iowa State over 40 minutes. The Cyclones’ defense will suffocate Lipscomb’s guards, forcing bad shots and limiting their offense.
Expect Iowa State to cruise to victory with a dominant defensive performance.
Prediction: Iowa State dominates.
(7) Marquette (-3.5) vs. (10) New Mexico
This is one of the most exciting first-round matchups in the South Region. Marquette enters the tournament as a well-balanced team with strong guard play, experience, and a disruptive defense. Their ability to pressure opposing offenses has been a key factor in their success this season.
However, New Mexico is a dangerous No. 10 seed, boasting a fast-paced attack and high-scoring guards. The Lobos thrive in transition and have multiple players who can create their own shots and attack the rim. If they can speed up the game and limit Marquette’s half-court defense, they could put the Golden Eagles on upset alert.
Marquette’s defensive pressure will challenge New Mexico, but the Lobos’ ability to push the tempo and capitalize on fast-break opportunities could prove to be the difference. In a high-energy battle, New Mexico’s offensive explosiveness should carry them to victory.
Prediction: New Mexico pulls off the upset in a high-scoring affair.
(2) Michigan State (-17.5) vs. (15) Bryant
Tom Izzo’s Michigan State teams are built for tournament success, and this year is no different. With strong defense, rebounding, and a disciplined offense, the Spartans should have no trouble advancing past Bryant.
Bryant is an exciting mid-major team, but they lack the depth and defensive ability to slow down Michigan State. Expect the Spartans to take control early and dominate throughout the game.
Prediction: Michigan State advances easily.
Final Thoughts on the South Region
- Biggest potential first-round upset: Yale over Texas A&M (11 over 6)
- Most exciting game to watch: Marquette vs. New Mexico
- Team with the easiest path to the next round: Auburn
- Best dark horse pick: New Mexico (10-seed)
The South Region features several intriguing matchups and potential surprises. Auburn, Michigan State, and Iowa State should have no trouble advancing, while games like Louisville vs. Creighton and Marquette vs. New Mexico could be must-watch battles.
With defense-heavy teams like Iowa State and Ole Miss, as well as high-flying offensive squads like New Mexico and Creighton, the South Region could see some unexpected runs deep into the tournament. Let the madness begin!
