The West Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is loaded with powerhouse programs, intriguing matchups, and upset potential. Florida, the No. 1 seed, enters the tournament as one of the most dominant teams in the country, but there are plenty of teams capable of making deep runs. Let’s take a deeper dive into each first-round matchup and predict who will advance.
(1) Florida (-28.5) vs. (16) Norfolk State
Florida earned the No. 1 seed in the West Region thanks to their size, depth, and dominant frontcourt play. They control the paint, rebound well, and boast a top-tier defense that can shut down just about any offense.
Norfolk State, the MEAC champion, has had a fantastic season, but 16-seeds have an extremely difficult time pulling off upsets against top-seeded teams. The Spartans will try to push the pace and hit outside shots, but Florida’s superior athleticism and defense will wear them down over 40 minutes.
Expect Florida to control the game from start to finish, using their physicality and inside scoring to dominate.
Prediction: Florida wins easily.
(8) UConn (-4.5) vs. (9) Oklahoma
This 8 vs. 9 matchup is always one of the toughest to predict, and this year is no different. UConn has a balanced offensive attack and plays tough perimeter defense, making them a tough out for any team. They move the ball well and force opponents into tough shots, which has been their recipe for success all season.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, thrives in transition and plays at a fast tempo. Their athleticism and ability to score quickly could cause problems for UConn if they struggle to slow the pace of the game.
However, UConn’s ability to control the tempo and lock down defensively in key moments should give them the edge in this tight contest.
Prediction: UConn advances.
(5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado State (-2.5)
One of the most intriguing matchups in the first round, Memphis enters as a highly talented team that can beat anyone when they’re playing well. They have athletic guards, strong post play, and a defense capable of shutting down elite scorers.
However, Colorado State is one of the most dangerous No. 12 seeds in the tournament. They shoot efficiently, take care of the ball, and execute well in late-game situations. The Rams have been battle-tested all season and have proven they can beat bigger teams.
Memphis has the higher ceiling, but Colorado State’s efficiency and ability to control the pace make them a real threat for an upset.
Prediction: Colorado State wins in an upset.
(4) Maryland (-11.5) vs. (13) Grand Canyon
Maryland has had a strong season in the Big Ten, relying on defense, rebounding, and smart shot selection to win games. They’re one of the most disciplined teams in the tournament, and they rarely make costly mistakes.
Grand Canyon, on the other hand, is a high-energy team that loves to push the pace. They have a couple of sharpshooters who can get hot from beyond the arc, which gives them an outside shot at keeping this one close.
However, Maryland’s defensive pressure and ability to limit second-chance opportunities should be too much for Grand Canyon to handle over 40 minutes.
Prediction: Maryland wins comfortably.
(6) Missouri (-6.5) vs. (11) Drake
Missouri entered the tournament as a physical team, boasting strong defense, elite rebounding, and a methodical offensive approach. They controlled the tempo and forced opponents into difficult shots, making them a tough matchup for any team.
Drake, however, has a history of embracing the underdog role and has been known to upset higher-seeded teams. Their experience in close games and an offense capable of heating up at crucial moments made them a formidable opponent. If they could hit their threes early and keep Missouri off the offensive glass, they had the potential to turn the game in their favor.
As the game progressed, Missouri’s depth and physicality wore down Drake, limiting their effectiveness from beyond the arc. The Tigers capitalized on their size advantage inside and forced turnovers that led to easy transition buckets. In the final minutes, Missouri’s composure and execution sealed the victory.
Prediction: Missouri advances with a hard-fought victory.
(3) Texas Tech (-15.5) vs. (14) NC-Wilmington
Texas Tech is a defensive powerhouse, known for pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers. They thrive on forcing opponents into bad shots and turning defense into offense.
NC-Wilmington has been a solid mid-major team, but they lack the ball-handling and size to match up with Texas Tech’s relentless defense. Unless Texas Tech has a disastrous shooting night, this should be a comfortable win for the Red Raiders.
Prediction: Texas Tech wins easily.
(7) Kansas (-5.5) vs. (10) Arkansas
One of the most exciting first-round matchups, Kansas vs. Arkansas features two teams loaded with talent and athleticism.
Kansas enters with a disciplined approach, strong shooting, and excellent perimeter defense. They excel at making smart plays and executing in crunch time.
Arkansas, however, is one of the more unpredictable teams in the tournament. When they play well, they can compete with anyone, but they also struggle with consistency. Their ability to push the pace and attack the basket makes them a difficult matchup.
Ultimately, Kansas’ tournament experience and ability to make smart plays in key moments should give them the slight edge.
Prediction: Kansas wins narrowly.
(2) St. John’s (-18.5) vs. (15) Nebraska Omaha
St. John’s enters as a dangerous No. 2 seed, boasting one of the most potent offenses in the tournament. They love to run the floor, spread out defenses, and hit three-pointers at a high clip.
Nebraska Omaha has had a great season, but they simply don’t have the firepower to keep up with St. John’s for an entire game. If St. John’s gets hot early, this one could be over by halftime.
Prediction: St. John’s wins decisively.
Final Thoughts on the West Region
- Biggest potential first-round upset: Colorado State over Memphis (12 over 5)
- Most exciting game to watch: Kansas vs. Arkansas
- Team with the easiest path to the next round: Florida
- Best dark horse pick: Colorado State (12-seed)
The West Region has a strong mix of powerhouse teams, upset threats, and intriguing matchups. Florida, Texas Tech, and St. John’s should advance comfortably, while games like Memphis vs. Colorado State and Kansas vs. Arkansas could come down to the wire.
With a mix of elite defenses, high-powered offenses, and unpredictable underdogs, this region could produce one of the most exciting Sweet 16 matchups in the tournament. Let the madness begin!
